The global trade war sparked by Donald Trump’s tariffs may hit the box office soon, as two public figures in China released a list of countermeasures reportedly being measured by the country’s government that includes a possible ban on American-produced films.
The list was shared simultaneously on Chinese social media websites by Ren Yi, the widely followed grandson of former Guangdong communist party chief Ren Zhongyi, and Liu Hong, senior editor at the Xinhua News Agency. Bloomberg was among the first western news outlets to report on their posts.
Along with a film moratorium, other possible measures reportedly being considered include tariffs on soybeans and other U.S. agricultural products, a full ban on all U.S. poultry imports, and cutting off all support to the U.S. on fentanyl control.
In the hours since the posts were made, Xinhua has not published a report off of Hong’s statement. Two insiders at a pair of Hollywood studio distribution offices also say that their studios have reached out to their contacts at the China Film Board, who have told them that they haven’t received any change in guidance from the government.
China’s theatrical industry has rapidly grown in recent years thanks to significant private and public investment in all aspects of production and exhibition. In doing so, the country has greatly reduced its box office dependence on Hollywood imports. In 2024, only three American films cracked the top 20 highest grossing films in China, with Warner Bros./Legendary’s “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” being the only top 10 entrant in eighth place with $132 million grossed.
This past weekend, another Warner/Legendary co-production, “A Minecraft Movie,” topped the Chinese charts with a $14 million opening, ending the two-month No.1 reign of the record setting animated film “Ne Zha 2,” which has grossed $2.14 billion almost entirely in China and now stands among the top 5 highest grossing films of all time.
Last week, Trump announced a minimum 10% tariff on all global imports with significant increases on other countries he believes are dealing unfairly with the U.S. on trade. That includes a 54% tariff on China that will begin at midnight tonight, with a threat from the president to increase that tariff to 104% if China chose to match that tariff rate against the U.S.
Distribution sources tell TheWrap that because movie theaters are a key part of commercial real estate as anchor businesses that support adjacent restaurants and shops, they are skeptical that China would move forward on a Hollywood film ban that could negatively impact those theaters even if moviegoer tastes have significantly shifted towards local fare.
And while most Hollywood franchises have had diminished returns in China since the pandemic, Disney/20th Century’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is expected to be a major moneymaker in that market. Disney, like the rest of Hollywood, only takes 25% of Chinese grosses per government regulation, but the 2022 film “Avatar: The Way of Water” made $246 million in China, ranking fifth among all releases that year.
Disney has another film with potential to overperform in China with “Zootopia 2,” which will be released in U.S. theaters on Thanksgiving weekend. The 2016 animated film inspired a section of Shanghai Disneyland that is exclusive among Disney’s collection of theme parks, showing how popular the series has been in the country. At the start of 2025, users on the Chinese movie site Douban ranked “Zootopia 2” as their most anticipated Hollywood film of the year, followed by “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
Release dates for “Zootopia 2” and “Avatar 3” in China have not been set, but a release date for Disney’s next movie, Marvel Studios’ “Thunderbolts,” has been set for April 30. Sources at Disney have confirmed that the film remains on schedule for that date.
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