Let’s begin with the biggest question mark of this year’s Tony Awards: Which playwright is going to win the prize for Best Play?
On paper, before the 2024-25 season barely got started, it looked like it would be either Sanaz Toossi for her play “English,” which had won a 2023 Pulitzer Prize, or Jez Butterworth, who was returning to Broadway with his most recent West End hit, “The Hills of California.”
Now, Toossi and Butterworth look the least likely to win, and not because their respective plays have already closed. The Cinderella story of this theater season is Kimberly Belflower and her Broadway debut play, “John Proctor Is the Villain,” which panders to the liberal choir even more than Toossi’s “English.”
Tony voters may feel that it’s enough that Belflower, an educator from Appalachian Georgia, simply got nominated, and the contest is more between Cole Escola and the wild farce “Oh, Mary!” and Branden Jacobs-Jenkins and his wild family comedy “Purpose.” Jacobs-Jenkins might be a shoo-in if not for the fact that his play “Appropriate” won last year for Best Revival of a Play. Escola might be seen to be a shoo-in if not for the fact that they are also nominated this season for Best Actor in a Play. “Purpose,” however, has the distinct advantage of being trashed by the chief theater critic at the New York Times, despite the play winning a 2025 Pulitzer Prize and being praised by most critics. The Tony voters like nothing better than giving the finger to the Old Gray Lady. My prediction is that Jacobs-Jenkins will win for Best Play and Escola for Best Actor, and both deservedly so.
Big winner of the night looks to be “Maybe Happy Ending,” which could easily take home the Tonys for not only Best Musical but also Best Actor in a Musical (Darren Criss), Best Director of a Musical (Michael Arden), Best Book and Best Score (Hue Park and Will Aronson). For me, this contest quality-wise is a toss-up between “Maybe Happy Ending” and the equally great but very different “Dead Outlaw” and its writers Itamar Moses, David Yazbek and Erik Penna. The edge goes to Park and Aronson since their musical also marks their Broadway debuts.
As a member of the New York Drama Critics’ Circle, I get to vote on the Tonys, and my vote for Best Actor in a Musical will be going to Jeremy Jordan for his phenomenal turn in “Floyd Collins.” But my vote aside, this Tony is going to Criss.
Twenty-five of the critics who comprise the Critics’ Circle recently voted on the best of the 2024-25 theater season. Critics in other groups don’t get to vote, so their awards to performers mean a little less than whom the Circle recently honored. The Circle gave its Best Performance award to Andrew Scott for “Vanya,” but since that one-person show is staged Off-Broadway, he’s not eligible for a Tony. Runners-up for that Circle award were Escola (“Oh, Mary!”), Sarah Snook (“The Picture of Dorian Gray”) and, surprisingly, Jasmine Amy Rogers (“Boop!”).
Snook looks likely to win for Best Actress in a Play, although I’ll be voting for LaTanya Richardson Jackson in “Purpose.”
Rogers has a less secure lock on Best Actress in a Musical. Her biggest competition is Nicole Scherzinger from “Sunset Blvd.” Surprisingly, Scherzinger didn’t get that many votes from the Critics’ Circle, and her comment endorsing Russell Brand’s pro-MAGA Instagram post last fall will put off more than a few Tony voters. Audra McDonald deserves to win for her performance in “Gypsy,” but McDonald is the Meryl Streep of the Tonys. In other words, “Her again?” If this were McDonald’s first nomination, which it is for both Rogers and Scherzinger, and not her 11th, the “Gypsy” star would win hands-down.
The George Wolfe-directed “Gypsy” deserves to win for Best Revival of a Musical, but the Tonys have tipped their hat here by snubbing him for Best Director of a Musical and instead nominating Jamie Lloyd for his over-the-top direction of “Sunset Blvd.”
Sam Pinkleton of “Oh, Mary!” deserves to win for Best Director of a Play, and he will.
Ditto Natalie Venetia Belcon (“Buena Vista Social Club”) for Best Featured Actress in a Musical and the thrice-Tony-nominated Jessica Hecht (“Eureka Day”) for Best Featured Actress in a Play.
Jonathan Spector’s “Eureka Day” deserves the Tony for Best Revival of a Play, but will get major competition from David Henry Hwang’s “Yellow Face.”
Taylor Trensch from “Floyd Collins” should win for Best Featured Actor in a Musical, but Jak Malone from “Operation Mincemeat” will take home this Tony, because he gets to sing the show’s only memorable song, “Dear Bill.”
Glenn Davis in “Purpose” gives one of the season’s most subtle performances, but being understated doesn’t bring you the Tony for Best Featured Actor in a Play. The most acting, not the best, comes from Bob Odenkirk in “Glengarry Glen Ross,” and he will win.
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