Disney returned to its spot as the undisputed leader of the box office in 2024, but the poor opening weekend of “Mufasa: The Lion King” threatens to end the year on a sour note.
Were it any other time of the year, the $35 million domestic/$122 million global opening of this Barry Jenkins-directed prequel to the 2019 “Lion King” remake — well short of pre-release projections of $50 million and $180 million — would be a sign of an impending flop.
But this is Christmas, a time of miracles… and long box office legs.
First announced in September 2020 and carrying a reported $200 million production budget, “Mufasa” was never expected to get anywhere near the $1.65 billion global total of its predecessor. Without the familiar story and songs of the Disney Renaissance classic to draw in audiences, “Mufasa” — which tells the origin story of young brothers Mufasa and Scar — had to base its marketing around an updated version of the photorealistic CGI style that wowed audiences five years ago but has become the target of ire from many ever since.
While those updates to make the lions of the Pride Lands more expressive this time around got some praise from critics, reviews for “Mufasa” were as mixed as they were for the “Lion King” remake with a 57% Rotten Tomatoes score. That provided no help in creating any sense of urgency or increased interest among general audiences.
But as history has shown with films from “The Greatest Showman” to “Wonka,” the holiday season is a time of year where a low opening weekend can transform into a decent final total, even for a film with a high break-even point like “Mufasa.” Here’s the best and worst case scenarios:
Worst Case: Families Flock to ‘Sonic 3’
Whether or not “Mufasa” salvages its theatrical run comes down to whether the positive word-of-mouth from early audiences spreads over the coming days and weeks. Currently, “Mufasa” enjoys an A- on CinemaScore — the same grade as the Disney animated flop “Wish” but also as last year’s leggy holiday hit “Wonka” — along with a 5/5 PostTrak score from families and an 89% Rotten Tomatoes audience score.
But Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” is doing even better with an A on CinemaScore and top PostTrak scores from families and general audiences. The Sega threequel has seen steeper day-to-day dropoffs than expected after initial studio projections of a $70 million start, but is still headed for a $62 million opening.
The success of “Sonic 3” isn’t a major factor in the weak start for “Mufasa.” Paramount’s series has demonstrated since it first launched in 2020 that it enjoys a devoted, consistent base of hedgehog-loving gamers that will turn out on opening weekend no matter the release date or the competition.
But in the worst-case scenario, “Sonic 3” ends up attracting a wider swath of families than expected thanks to that series-best buzz, not to mention the continued strong success of “Wicked” and “Moana 2” over the holidays. Insiders at Disney, along with exhibitors, tell TheWrap that in the Christmas week ahead, they expect that kids’ interest in “Sonic 3” will skew more towards boys, leaving some room for “Mufasa” to keep legging out with families who aren’t as familiar or interested in the Sega games.
If that doesn’t happen, “Mufasa” could face a situation where pleasing opening night moviegoers isn’t enough to overcome its image among the wider populace as an inessential prequel that answers questions about “The Lion King” that they didn’t ask. That would put more pressure on the film to perform internationally, where it will be the top Hollywood offering in Asia and parts of Europe but will face more competition from “Sonic 3” in Latin America, UK and Australia in its bid just to break even.
Best Case Scenario: There’s Room for Everyone
In the best case scenario, Christmas Day marks the start of slow but steady turnout from families for “Mufasa.” Exhibitor sources told TheWrap that there had been solid presales for the Disney film prior to its release, a possible signal that there are moviegoers who were sold on the film prior to release that are waiting until they have more time during the holidays to get in theaters.
With Christmas Day falling on a Wednesday this year, studios and theaters get the maximum impact of the holidays as the public gets a weekday off from work. That is what allows major studio tentpoles released the weekend before Christmas to leg out, as the time off spreads out the audience and increases the amount of time for word-of-mouth to spread with the lack of significant wide release competition in early January.
While the quantity is unknown, there will be families who will prefer to see “Mufasa” over “Sonic 3” simply because they are more familiar with Disney films than Sega games. With general audience support likely to be sparser given the lower audience scores from that subset, it will probably be up to Disney to draw out those parents and kids to earn a domestic run of $125-175 million and a global run somewhere between $550-600 million buoyed by the aforementioned international markets where big screen spectacle is valued and “Sonic 3” may not have as big an opening when it begins its overseas run this week.
A $575 million final total would put “Mufasa” in the same territory as last year’s remake of “The Little Mermaid,” which grossed $569 million worldwide. Compared to the heights of the Disney remake series in the late 2010s, such a result would be a disappointment. But it would at least allow the film to finish with a modest theatrical profit and for Disney to end 2024 with a soft landing after grossing more than $4 billion at the global box office.
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