Over the past three weeks, “Moana 2” and “Wicked” have captained the good ship Box Office to record highs. And this weekend should see their spot at the wheel go unchallenged as Sony’s “Kraven the Hunter” and Warner Bros.’ “Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim” aren’t expected to go far with audiences.
“Kraven,” the latest and potentially last of Sony’s attempts to turn antiheroes and villains from the “Spider-Man” mythos into spinoff films, is projected for a weak $13-15 million opening from 3,200 theaters.
The top end of that range is roughly the same as the $15.3 million that another Sony/Marvel film, “Madame Web,” made earlier this year en route to flopping with just $100 million grossed worldwide against an $80 million budget before marketing.
[Kraven the Hunter” was initially set for release in October 2023, but it was pushed back more than a year due to the SAG-AFTRA strike. Sony insiders at the time told TheWrap that the move was done to allow for the film’s cast, led by Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Ariana DeBose, to do a full marketing tour for the film once the strike concluded. That move pushed the budget for the film from $90 million to $110 million.But even at the lower budget point, “Kraven” wouldn’t be set up to be more successful than “Madame Web.” When it comes to bloody, R-rated action films that offer an alternative to the song and dance of “Moana 2” and “Wicked,” Paramount’s “Gladiator II” already has that audience subset covered.
This could have been mitigated if there was audience goodwill for antihero spinoffs. But Sony has only found success on that front with the recently completed “Venom” trilogy, which combined for more than $1.8 billion at the global box office. On the flip side, the 2022 film “Morbius” became better known for internet memes than for anything in the film itself and didn’t do much better than “Madame Web,” with $167 million grossed worldwide.
As TheWrap reported earlier this week, there were very sparse crowds for Sony’s CCXP “Kraven” panel in São Paulo, Brazil, showing how little interest there is for the film even among hardcore comic book movie fans. While Venom may be a popular villain/antihero in the Marvel mythos, Sony and its creatives haven’t been able to elevate the likes of Kraven the Hunter and Morbius the way James Gunn has elevated obscure Marvel and DC characters like Groot and Peacemaker.
Without that audience goodwill, “Kraven” faces not only a poor opening but a strong chance of being passed over in favor of alternatives. Along with “Gladiator II,” “Kraven” could lose some portions of the geek culture crowd to Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” next week, while others who are looking for dark, bloody thrills this holiday season could turn to Robert Eggers’ critically praised “Nosferatu,” which Focus Features will release on Christmas Day.
It’s not the only film that will likely face a short box office run. “Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” is heading for an opening of just $6-7 million from 3,500 theaters this weekend. For a recent anime comparison, the latest “Demon Slayer” film, “To the Hashira Training,” was released by Crunchyroll in 1,949 theaters this past February and opened to $11.5 million, grossing $17.6 million overall.
“War of the Rohirrim” was greenlit in 2022 in an effort by New Line Cinema to ensure it didn’t lose the film adaptation rights to J.R.R. Tolkien’s Middle-Earth novels as it develops more live action films. That move that proved to be unnecessary after Embracer Group, the Swedish company that paid $395 million for the Tolkien rights in 2022, reached an agreement in February 2023 with New Line to collaborate on future Middle-Earth films.
Produced on a reported $30 million budget, “War of the Rohirrim” is based off of Tolkien’s appendices for “The Lord of the Rings” and tells the story of Helm Hammerhand, the famed leader of Rohan referenced in “The Two Towers,” as he and his daughter Hera lead their kingdom into battle against an invasion of Dunlendings. Critics’ reviews have been mixed-to-positive with a 63% Rotten Tomatoes score.
With such a mixed reception, “Rohirrim” is likely to also have very short legs and draw little attention beyond hardcore Tolkien fans that are also interested in anime. The film caps off a feast-or-famine 2024 for Warner Bros., which enjoyed hits like “Wonka,” “Dune: Part Two” and “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” but also suffered some of the most high-profile flops like “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” and “Joker: Folie a Deux.”
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